Following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s impassioned plea and formal application for his besieged country to join the EU as soon as possible, the Western Balkans—home to six membership hopefuls— has been relatively silent.
On 28 February, Zelenskyy formally applied for EU membership, a move supported by Estonia, Latvia, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia.
The Western Balkans six, comprising Albania, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro, are all also pursuing the EU dream. Serbia leads the way as it has opened 22 negotiating chapters, while Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are mere potential candidates.
Albania and North Macedonia have been in the waiting room for years, blocked by issues of corruption, asylum, and most recently in the case of the latter, a dispute with Sofia over culture and identity.
Enlargement remains a hot topic, with the Commission constantly saying it is on the table. The reality is however, many think it has stalled as little concrete progress has occurred in recent years. As for what Balkan governments think of the potential queue-jumper, the public is none the wiser.
Exit contacted each country’s European and foreign affairs ministries, but only Montenegro responded.
“Montenegro, as an EU candidate country, wholeheartedly supports the EU enlargement process. We stress that a decision to join the EU depends exclusively on the decision made by the member states,” the response read.
In the absence of official responses from Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Exit spoke to several analysts from the region for their views.
Gjergji Vurmo, Program Director at the Albanian Institute for Democracy and Mediation, agreed that there was some public silence on the issue but argues that Russia’s aggression has created momentum for the Balkan’s EU accession hopes.
“EU stakeholders, particularly key member states, are more than ever open and seeking ways to capitalise such momentum and to anchor WB countries more firmly with the EU.”
He continues that the EU accession process has suffered from credibility issues in recent years, and it will take courage from EU leaders to make the EU and Western Balkans stronger.
“The war in Ukraine poses immense threats and has exposed a lot that was going on in the WB region and that civil society and independent media was denouncing for years…Courage [is needed] to recognise the mistakes of the past, and courage not to shy away from responsibilities,” he adds.
Kristijan Fidanovski, a scholar at Oxford University with an interest in East European, Balkan and Russian politics, believes Ukraine’s wishes are not a threat to Macedonian enlargement.
“Given Ukraine’s remote membership prospects, it is difficult to see how they could threaten North Macedonia’s accession. In fact, given the EU’s history of simultaneous enlargement into multiple countries, for both logistical and political reasons, Ukraine’s bid can only be beneficial although it is more likely to exercise no impact in either direction,” he told Exit.
He also noted that Macedonian Foreign Minister Bujar Osmani welcomed the possibility of Ukraine’s EU membership—the first in the region to do so publicly.
However, Fidanovski levied criticism at the system of unanimous voting from all member states that is required to admit new members.
“As long as unanimous consent among member states is required, EU enlargement might remain incomplete. Democracy is about the majority’s will, but unanimity means the majority can be taken hostage by a minority of one. Unanimity is the enemy of democracy,” he explains.
Back in Albania, Vurmo notes that there is a high level of sensitivity around the situation in Ukraine and the fact it is fighting for European values. But, he says the prospect of admitting Ukraine before the Balkan countries is not possible- and vice versa.
“What is obvious is that there cannot be any fast or normal track advancement of Ukraine’s membership bid without a WB European integration first. The same holds true for the reverse – if the EU fails WB countries’ accession objective, it will be very difficult to convince anyone that the EU is serious about Ukraine’s membership perspective.
