Ever since the 2013 elections, there have been a lot of movements in Parliament, with deputies splitting off, being expelled, losing their mandates, or voting with competing parties. This has led to a rather unclear image of who “has the votes,” especially at a moment that the future of the ruling PS–LSI coalition is at stake.
One of the main questions is whether Prime Minister Edi Rama would be able to survive the withdrawal of the LSI from his coalition, either because it joins the PD’s cause for a caretaker government, or because it believes it will be able to perform better on its own in the upcoming elections.
Exit has therefore prepared an overview with the original 2013 election results and the current division of parliamentary seats between the majority and the opposition.
The original election results
This the division based on the original election results from 2013. There were two large coalitions: The Alliance for a European Albania, including the PS, LSI, PBDNj, and PKD, and the Alliance for Employment, Well-being, and Integration, including the PS, PR, and PDIU.
The current division
Two major shifts happened. The PBDNj leaving the government coalition, while the PDIU joined the coalition. Additionally, some PS deputies switched to the LSI, and some PD deputies to the PDIU. Libra consists of two former deputies of the PS.
As can be gathered from the schema above, the current government has a majority of 88 of the 140 votes in Parliament, including the votes of Tom Doshi (excluded from the PS parliamentary group, but votes with PS) and Edmond Zejno (replaced Dashamir Tahiri who left the PDIU after it joined the government, but votes with PDIU). The two members of Libra, Ben Blushi and Mimoza Hafizi, have opposed the government on several occasions, but have not joined the opposition protest and boycott.
In order to arrive at the necessary 7 deputies to form a parliamentary group, the PR has “borrowed” 3 deputies from the PD, whereas PR deputy Agron Duka is leading his own party, the Partia Agrare Ambientaliste (PAA). The PD also “gave” one of its mandates to the PDK. All of them are solidly in the opposition block.
Libra, PKD, PBDNj, and PDK do not exist as independent parliamentary groups.
The implementation of the decriminalization law has led to PS deputy Armando Prenga handing in has mandate. Because the PS has exhausted its candidate list in Lezha, Prenga’s mandate is expected to go to Erisa Zaimi (LSI), even though Kastriot Piroli (PS), whom the decriminalization law would prohibit from picking up the mandate, has laid claim to it. As long as no replacement has actually been sworn in it remains uncertain who will pick up the seat.
Furthermore, one of the seats nominally held by the PR is occupied by Mhill Fufi, who has long since voted with the PS. Fufi is currently under investigation by the General Prosecution for possibly lying on his self-declaration form. If his mandate were to be removed, like Prenga’s, his seat would return to solid member of the opposition.
What if the LSI leaves?
If both Prenga is replaced with Zaimi, and Fufi with a new PD deputy borrowed to the PR, the removal of LSI from the coalition, for whichever reason, will leave Prime Minister Rama two seats short of a minimal 71-seat majority.
This implies that he will need to find these two votes in another party, most probably disgruntled members of the PD. Two possible candidates to jump into Rama’s boat would be Majlinda Bregu, who has long been unhappy with the direction of the PD, and Eduard Selami, who once stated that PD leader Lulzim Basha “doesn’t inspire and doesn’t raise hope.” Both have been largely absent from the opposition protest in front of the Prime Ministry.
Based on the election results of 2013, a similar performance of a coalition of PS, PDIU, PKD, and a smattering of smaller parties, would give him 70 seats exactly. Only a minor improvement would therefore allow him to secure a government coalition without Ilir Meta’s LSI after the elections. Considering the growth of the PDIU, and the fact that Rama enters the elections from a position of power, this does not seem an unlikely scenario.
In other words, it appears that there is a possibility, albeit fragile, for Rama’s government to survive both until and after the elections without the LSI.
