Serbian President Alexandar Vucic is reportedly good at chess. In politics, too, he is doing well: despite being accused of authoritarianism, monopolising the media, and frequently changing his opinion, his power seems unshakable, writes Svetla Miteva.
Serbia will hold 3-in-1 elections on 3 April – presidential, parliamentary and local elections in Belgrade’s capital. Opinion polls suggest Vucic’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party will garner more than 50% of the vote.
Vucic said his candidacy for a second presidential term was likely in a recent interview but “still under consideration”.
Of course, no one doubts his candidacy. He is expected to be supported by Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party, Alexander Vulin’s Socialist Movement, the United Pensioners’ Party, the Union of Hungarians in Vojvodina and Dragan Markovic Palma’s United Serbia.
Although Vucic has been accused of authoritarianism, monopolising the media, and frequently changing his opinion, his power seems unshakable.
The early days: hostility to EU
Vucic’s political career began in the ranks of Vojislav Seselj’s ultranationalists, which the 23-year-old joined shortly after graduating in law from Belgrade University. Only a year later, in 1994, he became secretary-general of the Serbian Radical Party, which was advocating against Serbia’s EU rapprochement and in favour of close co-operation with Russia.
At the time, Vucic could be seen at the forefront of rallies that fueled nationalist passions in Bosnia and Croatia.
He became a reviewer of some of Vojislav Šešelj’s books. Later, the Hague tribunal tried the politician for war crimes against non-Serbs in Croatia, Vojvodina and Bosnia and Herzegovina. One of the books reviewed by Vucic is about Tony Blair and the role of the now-former UK prime minister in the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999.
“Tony Blair has done much against the freedom of humanity against all nations around the globe”, wrote book reviewer Vucic. That did not stop him from appointing the same Blair as a consultant to the Serbian government nine years later.
Vucic is also known for being Minister of Information in Milosevic’s government between 1998 and 2000. During this period, a media law was passed (1998), which closed several newspapers and television channels with a pro-Western orientation. This provoked mass protests by journalists and the opposition.
At the time, Vucic was on a list of Serbian officials banned from entering the EU and the United States.
New beginning
In September 2008, amid a split in the Serbian Radical Party, Vucic resigned as party chairman. Only a month later, he co-founded the Serbian Progressive Party, of which he was elected deputy chairman. Four years later, he became its leader. The new party describes itself as centre-right and conservative.
In July 2012, a coalition government was formed, led by the Socialist Party of Serbia leader Ivica Dacic. Alexander Vucic became deputy prime minister in charge of defence, security, the fight against corruption and crime.
In March 2014, the Serbian Progressive Party, led by Vucic, won a landslide victory in the parliamentary elections, and Vucic was elected prime minister. Two years later, his coalition won a parliamentary majority, and on 2 April 2017, Vucic was elected president with 55% of the vote.
Vucic as president
Vucic says he has a vision for Serbia as an economically renewed, well-functioning, modern European state, a regional leader in economy, politics, infrastructure and energy. People learned that their president plays chess, is a fan of basketball and football, speaks good English and Russian.
Vucic’s dizzyingly rapid rise shows that he rose to power surprisingly quickly, despite often changing many of his views 180 degrees.
“In Serbia, they say that only donkeys do not change their minds,” Vucic said in response to criticism that he was a turncoat. Political analyst Jadranka Jelinic commented that all this is possible because the West is turning a blind eye to the skeletons in Vucic’s closet.
The Serbian president presents himself as a guarantor of stability, but analysts say the nationalist and authoritarian nature of the Serbian regime poses a threat to Serbia and the region. Vucic’s claims to be a pragmatic European conservative may have been convincing in his first years in power, but they increasingly sound hollow, according to Austrian political analyst Florian Bieber.
Vucic positions himself as a regional leader through his Open Balkans initiative, also known as Mini Schengen, which would give Serbia economic benefits and connect the rest of the region closer to it. Similar to this idea is the “Serbian world”, a term meaning Serbian sphere of influence based on nationality.
Serbia exerts its influence through Serbian parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo. Although it does not fully control them, it allows it to influence the domestic policies of its neighbours and block important decisions.
The Serbian World
Ivo Goldstein, a prominent Croatian historian, criticised the nationalist policies of President Vucic and his interior minister, Aleksandar Vulin, who first spoke about the “Serbian world” last July.
According to Goldstein, the concept of the “Serbian world” that Belgrade promotes is a dangerous challenge for Bosnia, Montenegro and Kosovo. The idea of the “Serbian world” is borrowed from the Russian concept (Novorossiya), which legitimises Russian influence in the post-Soviet space.
The concept of the “Serbian world” aims at Serbia’s dominance in the post-Yugoslav space, Bieber explains.
According to observers, Vucic’s political course distances Serbia from the West and the EU. In particular, Vucic and the media controlled by his government are drawing a line against the West.
“For seven or eight years, we have been told – you will not be able to be friends with Russia, the EU, China and the US at the same time, it is not possible to sit on two chairs at the same time. But we sit on one chair – the Serbian one”, Vucic told supporters on 20 February.
He points out that Serbia will never join NATO and has not done anything to the detriment of Russia or Russia to the detriment of Serbia. However, Vucic has a problem with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as he keeps silent on supporting sanctions.
In December 2019, Vucic said that his country valued Vladimir Putin more than all former Russian leaders. According to him, if Putin were in charge in 1999, “no one would have bombed us.” At that time, Yeltsin was still the President of Russia.
Vucic also has excellent relations with Beijing, where he attended the opening of the Winter Olympic Games. During his visit, a flurry of trade agreements with China were signed. Many Chinese companies are operating in Serbia, and trade between Serbia and Beijing amounts to $5.3 billion and is expected to increase to $8 billion.
Vucic, a junior chess champion in Belgrade in the late 1980s, skillfully takes advantage of the fact that the EU has other problems. In the meantime, he pursues a nationalist policy that is not fundamentally different from that of his predecessor, Milosevic. Just more moderate.
Svetla Miteva is a Bulgarian journalist specialising in the Western Balkans, working for more than 30 years with the Bulgarian Telegraph Agency BTA. She contributed this text to EURACTIV Bulgaria.
