Extreme poverty in Albanian could increase tenfold over the next 30 years due to increased competitiveness from import trade and a lack of local investment, according to a study by the Food and Agricultural Organization at the United Nations.
Home to 2.8 million people, Albania is one of Europe’s poorest countries where just over one-third of the population lives below the poverty line of $5 per day. The report simulated scenarios for Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, and Vietnam.
It found that an increase in foreign trade directly reduces local revenue, especially in rural areas. Furthermore, it leads to less land use and a subsequent loss of land value. As such, those living in absolute poverty will rise to almost 8% in 2050 from just 0-.8% in 2011.
Out of the countries surveyed, only Albania and Malawi will likely see an increase in poverty. In Albania, the average income per capita will increase by some 135%, but the poorest and most vulnerable segments of society will suffer more. While the increase in per capita income appears high, it was the lowest out of all surveyed countries.
The UN calls on both private and public actors in developing countries to make decisions that promote domestic sectors such as agriculture and tourism.
