German Shock Poll Bad News for PS

A poll held among 996 Albanian voters between June 15–18 by German market research company GfK shows that a large number of voters of 20.3% still didn’t make up their mind.

The poll shows the PD and PS basically tied at 31.4% and 31.1% respectively, with the PS and LSI polling significantly below the averages of the other two regularly held polls, or IPR/Ora News and Piepoli/Report TV.

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The most recent IPR poll puts the number of undecided voters at 10%, whereas Piepoli puts them at 13%. It should be pointed out, however, that different from GfK and Piepoli, IPR does not count the undecided voters as a separate category but only provides poll numbers based on those who already made up their mind. This may skew the comparison between the different polls. Moreover, GfK has a category for those who refuse to answer, which is lacking with both Piepoli and IPR. 7.5% refused to answer to GfK’s poll.

Nevertheless, four days before elections the difference in predication between Piepoli and GfK is remarkable and may be a sign of the volatility of the vote. IPR found recently that nearly half of the PS electorate rejected Edi Rama as prime minister, which may indicate that the PS base is not as strong as suggested by both IPR and Piepoli.