Yesterday night, IPR and Ora News published the first opinion poll concerning the upcoming parliamentary elections for June 25. The data are based on telephone interviews with 2,002 people throughout Albania, as well as 1,000 people in Tirana County, where 34 of 140 mandates are at play.
21% of the interviewees indicated not to have made up their mind.
It should be noted that although IPR/Ora News claim an error margin of 2.5% both in the national and the Tirana County poll, historically they performed much worse than that, with prediction errors above 5% and sometimes even above 10%. The polling numbers replicated below should therefore be only taken as an indication of trends.
On a national level, we find a slight increase in the share of the large parties PS (43%), PD (36%), and LSI (12%). This is most probably a direct result from the absence of pre-electoral coalitions, which disfavors smaller parties, and the fact that the PD has absorbed the candidates of all right-wing opposition parties.
In Tirana County the data appear to show a bit more movement. Although the PD roughly stays the same at 33%, PS drops from 44.1% in 2013 to 41%, losing votes to Ben Blushi’s LIBRA (6%) and the Petrit Vasili’s LSI (14%), which nearly doubles in size.
