While the opposition is entering already in its 21st day of protests against the Rama government and its boycott of Parliament, there are few signs of a quick resolution of the situation.
Today, the opposition parties announced that they will not register at the Central Election Committee (KQZ) on the deadline of April 9 if their demand to the Rama government for the installation of a caretaker government is not met.
At the same time, the LSI continues to linger over the question whether it should enter the election in coalition with the PS, as last time, or as an independent force.
This leaves us with a Gordian knot of four questions faced by the three major parties in the Albanian political landscape, with each of them waiting for the others to make the first move.
- Will PS agree to PD’s demand for a caretaker government?
- Will LSI reject a caretaker government?
- Will PD boycott the elections?
- Will LSI enter in an election coalition with PS?
Question 1 is an issue for Prime Minister Rama to ponder until April 9, and which he will have to decide before the LSI decides on its position regarding a caretaker government.
Questions 2 and 3 are bound to each other. By threatening with a boycott of the elections, the PD basically forces the LSI to decide on whether to join the PD in the demand for a caretaker government. So far, the LSI didn’t make any strong pronouncement on the matter, but in previous pronouncements LSI leader Ilir Meta consistently stressed the need for consensus and inclusiveness. The chances that the LSI will allow a PD boycott to happen seem small.
Question 4 comes in the picture at a later moment, on the deadline of April 19, when the election coalitions need to be registered at the KQZ. Breaking up the coalition with the PS any earlier would jeopardize the employment of all the LSI supporters currently working for the government.
We thus arrive at four scenarios:
A. Prime Minister Edi Rama has had enough of Ilir Meta and decides to form a caretaker government with the PD, hoping that between the two of them they can crush the LSI in the elections. Rama and Basha both count on a fragmentation of the “third block” vote, between LSI, PDIU, and new parties such as Sfida and Libra.
B. LSI joins the PD in its demand for a caretaker government and averts a boycott of the elections by the PD. It subsequently decides to leave the government coalition because it has been able to form a solid “third block,” gathering LSI, Sfida, Libra, and other smaller parties under a “new left” message that opposes the neoliberal politics of both the PS and the PD. Alternatively, the PS may jettison the LSI believing it can form a post-election government with the PDIU.
C. LSI joins the PD in its demand for a caretaker government and averts a boycott of the elections by the PD. It stays, however, in a government coalition with the PS, either because the PS doesn’t believe the PDIU will gather enough votes or because Meta doesn’t manage to solidify a “third block.” The status quo is retained.
D. PS refuses to give in to the PD’s demand, which also doesn’t find support from the LSI. The PD decides to boycott the elections leading to a prolonged political crisis resulting in either the postponement of the elections and/or EU intervention. It seems unlikely that Rama will wage to hold elections under a PD boycott, as this would certainly violate one of the five EU priorities for free and fair elections.
