Macedonia is hitting the headlines internationally for its innovative teenagers who created a “fake news” storm during the US election, but its own election, on December 11, has been preceded by a wave of crooked tales and dramatic twists that even the most gullible would find difficult to swallow.
A wire-tapping scandal, a paint-fuelled revolution and an electoral register with a litany of deceased registrants, Macedonia’s path to this weekend’s election has been a whirlwind of government corruption and mass protest.
The scandal and the revolution
In January this year the leader of the ruling party VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski, stepped down as prime minister. His resignation came about after an EU-brokered deal that ended a year-long political crisis following revelations from the opposition party that the government had been illegally wiretapping 20,000 of its own citizens. In a country of a population of just 2.1 million the scale of this deceit is astonishing. Gruevski’s government is being accused of spying on opposition members, ministers, politicians, businessmen, journalists, civil society activists, as well as ordinary citizens.
The most powerful and vocal force that led to the resignation of Gruevski was not the belated EU intervention, but the thousands of Macedonian citizens and civil society activists that took to the streets relentlessly and peacefully over a series of months to demand change. In April, the so-called “Color Revolution” was the most important and visible climax of Macedonian’s revolutionary fervor. Thousands of people in over 20 cities across the country took to the streets to call for justice following President Ivanov’s decision to pardon politicians that were implicated in the wire tapping scandal. In the capital Skopje, armed with paint, the protestors spattered the newly erected statues that PM Gruevski spent €560 million of tax payers’ money to install as part of his controversial neo-classical Skopje 2014 revamp. This significant mobilization of the masses, which included people of all ages, backgrounds, and ethnicities was enough to pressure the President to reverse his controversial decision.
The end of the revolution?
After all of this chaos, it would be reasonable to assume that the election would culminate in a decisive shift in the political landscape, but polls predict that little will change. The former prime minister, Nikola Gruevksi of the right-wing VMRO-DPMNE, looks set to be reinstated despite being investigated for corruption by a Special Prosecutor. The frequent and energetic protests have dissipated, there are few signs of the revolutionary spirit on the streets of Skopje left, except the rainbow paint splatters that stain buildings and statues.
After a number of difficult years it is understandable that the Macedonian people would be jaded. Exhausted from the political upheaval, the seemingly ever-present corruption, and the lack of opportunities in their own country. Like elsewhere in the region, the young are leaving in the thousands, frustrated with the blatant corruption and unemployment.
Dr Dane Taleski, a Macedonian policy analyst and political science expert, argues that the form of protest hasn’t stopped completely, but that it has moved from the streets to the polling stations. “Many people who were part of the protests are now involved in the electoral competition.” In a country where the political establishment is completely tarnished by scandals, this is not the desired outcome of many of those who supported the uprisings in the first place. There are some who were involved in the demonstrations that refuse to become part of the political establishment, but as Dr Taleski explains, “There are many civil society activists who joined different parties and there is a new political party that was formed by civil society groups/NGOs which were integral element in the protests.”
The aim of these new political parties and coalitions is to oust Gruevski and the ruling parties at all cost. However, faced with the challenge of countering a political force that has been in power for over a decade, the indicators that the VMRO-DPMNE may return to government are not that surprising.
Stoking ethnic tensions
The Macedonian government is generally made up of a ruling party and a collection of smaller coalition parties. Since the Ohrid Agreement in 2001, the representation of the large Albanian minority in the political establishment has been enshrined in order to ensure that their needs and rights are fairly protected in the country. There are three ethnic Albanian parties running for office this election. Despite this, Albanians in Macedonia have often felt excluded from participating in government and public administration.
This electoral campaign has seen the ruling party harden its rhetoric in relation to ethnicity in order to drum up more support. Gruevski and his hardcore followers have claimed that the opposition party Social Democrats intend to federalize the country, giving the significant Albanian minority more autonomy which would eventually lead to separation and division of Macedonia.
According to Dr Taleski, with this rhetoric they are implying that this “dark scenario” is supported by the “internal enemies” (the opposition and Albanians) and the “external enemy” (actors in the international community, mainly the US and the EU). This tactic is employed by the former ruling parties anxious about losing their power, and a desperate attempt to maximize their electoral appeal among ethnic Macedonians. Dr Taleski warns that the consequences of stoking ethnic tensions “will be a long-term devastating negative effect on the social cohesion in the country, making the ethnic divisions even greater.”
The likely outcome
Dr Taleski points out that an electoral victory for Gruevski VMRO-DPMNE and his coalition partners will be viewed as a “get-out-of-jail card.” A chance for them to vindicate themselves amid the scandals, investigations, and protests that led them to step down in the first place. “If, and only if, there is change in government, then there is a hope for change,” then, Dr Taleski argues “we will have a chance to change things: to restore democracy, to have impartial justice, to have objective and decisive fight against corruption and organized crime, to focus on improving the socio-economic problems.
“On the other hand, if there is electoral fraud and many election irregularities, I am deeply convinced that the crisis will continue and that people will again take to the streets.”
