The first population census in 20 years is underway in North Macedonia, and preliminary figures suggest that the number of people living in the country has fallen, confirming experts’ initial fears.
With just two days left before the headcount is completed on September 30, onlookers are eager to understand not just how many citizens live in the country but what the ethnic makeup of the population is.
In the last census, which took place in 2002, 25% of the population declared themselves as Albanian, and 64 % said they were Macedonian. The remaining population was made up of Turks, Serbs, and Roma and Egyptians.
Numbers are important because, under Macedonian law, any minority accounting for 20% or more of the population can enjoy special rights. These include the right to use their language in official state correspondence and ethnic quotas for public sector jobs.
This is also why the census, that is supposed to be held every 10 years, has been delayed since 2011. The 2011 census was cancelled due to political disputes, as Albanians and Macedonians accused each other of wanting to manipulate the outcome in favor of their cause.
Albanians often believe that the Macedonian authorities want to downplay their numbers to keep them out of decision-making roles. Some Macedonians believed Albanians wanted to over-inflate figures to gain more control in the country.
In fact, ethnic strife has marked the history of the census in North Macedonia. The 2002 census took place a year following ethnically-fuelled armed conflicts between Albanian Macedonians and government forces. The conflict started in January 2001 when the Albanian National Liberation Army attacked Macedonian security forces.
The National Liberation Army asserted that the uprising was due to the discrimination faced by ethnic Albanians in North Macedonia, where they were banned from using their language, and they struggled under social inequality and limited educational opportunities.
The conflict ended with the Ohrid agreement, which was signed on August 13 of that year, which foresaw that the rights of the Albanian minority must be improved within four years.
The 2002 census revealed 2.1 million people throughout the country.
This year, more than 1.3 million residents have been counted. Headcounts said they are progressing at a rate of around 100,000 people per day. The State Statistical Office stated that diaspora registration has been low, with just 200,000 people registering online so far.
This year’s census was supposed to take place in April, but it was supposedly postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decision was taken by Prime Minister Zoran Zaev and opposition leader Hristijan Mickoscki, while excluding the views of Albanian parties. This latter claims their ethnic group composes nearly one-third of the population in North Macedonia. They blame the Macedonian parties, and those Albanians who have been part of ruling coalitions, for the repeated delays and postponements of the census.
Preliminary numbers suggest that there will be fewer people living in the country than in 2002. Estimates have varied, but Apostol Simovski told BIRN he believes the government doesn’t have more than 1.8 million residents. This, he said, is due mainly to economic migration.
Some estimates have put the number even lower, as low as 1.5 million. But until the final count is complete and cross-referencing has been carried out, it’s difficult to pinpoint it exactly.
There are also concerns over accuracy and tampering. The country’s electoral roll has already been heavily scrutinized by civil society. They claim it’s too big for a country that has, at the most, just over two million people.
Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said changes to the electoral roll could not occur until the census result is in. This will do little to impact the forthcoming local elections, which will take place on 17 October.
The final figures are expected to be announced by the end of the year, but they will likely confirm what many believe and witness throughout the Western Balkans. This is the mass emigration of citizens, mainly to Europe and the US, searching for what they consider a better life.
