A month ago, Exit explained the four possible scenarios regarding the June 18 elections, predicting that very little would happen until today, April 10, the official registration deadline for political parties and individuals wanting to take part in the elections.
In spite of the many political maneuvers and the countless speeches, indeed very little concrete happened during last month, but let us summarize the events as follows:
- The PD and its allies failed to propose any members of the Local Electoral Commission (KZAZ) overseeing the elections. This means that even if the opposition would at last minute choose to participate in the elections, they will not be involved in running the voting centers or the counting process;
- Opposition leader Lulzim Basha has rejected any last-minute offer for a caretaker government;
- Government coalition partner Ilir Meta has called for “government of trust”;
- Prime Minister Edi Rama has rejected all propositions and stated that he will enter the elections alone if he must.
Barring any last-minute solutions, which Basha seems to have rejected in advance, a scenario in which there will be no caretaker government with elections including either the PS or, perhaps PS and LSI, seems to be most likely, based on these recent developments.
This would at the same time imply a significant worsening of the political crisis and possibly the worst elections in years. Meanwhile, the appointment of the parliamentary ad-hoc committees for the vetting institutions would have to be carried over until after the elections, further damaging the neutrality of the implementation of the judicial reform.
Finally, May 25 is the deadline for the election of a new President. Considering that Parliament will be dissolved between May 3 and May 18 at the latest, proceedings for the election by Parliament of a successor to Bujar Nishani need to be started soon. With the opposition supposedly continuing its boycott of Parliament until the elections, this means that the chances of the new president being “above the parties” will also be significantly reduced.
