Who will be the next prime minister of Albania? This question, which for the past 27 years has been answered with the result of the public elections, seems to be a tad more complicated this time around. The opening of the electoral battle and most notably the lack of coalitions could create, for the first time in Albania, a different situation. A situation, where the prime minister is not the product of a direct result, but rather a combination of numbers. This would be a case similar to Macedonia, where Gruevski won the elections, but not enough mandates to grant him a seat in office as the executive leader.
But then, what are the possible scenarios? Which natural combinations could take place and what are the real chances for each one? There is no doubt that the result of the elections and the party to take the first place will both be decisive. I am laying out the scenarios one by one.
The first possibility is that in which one party alone wins the elections. It will have to finish with at least 71 seats in parliament and be given the legislative right to form a government. This is the ideal scenario, but the least possible. The Socialist Party and the Democratic Party, the largest parties, are the ones considered for this position. But it seems difficult. In its prime, in 2009, the PD won only 70 seats in parliament, whereas in 2013 also in its prime, the PS won only 66 seats. None of the forces seem to be in that same favorable situation, so the scenario of one force winning with 71 mandates remains a theoretical possibility, but practically a very difficult one.
The second scenario would be that of PD and PS adding their votes together. The latest commentaries show that the agreement between Basha and Rama is an attempt to govern in unison, after the election date on June 25. In this case, the formula is clear. The winning party takes over the Prime Ministry, while the government is equally divided between the two main parties. This large coalition, functioning in the region in places such as Kosovo or Serbia, seems a bit problematic, since it can leave the country with no opposition. In Germany, where this formula is still in force, the rule of law and independent institutions are solid and strong nonetheless.
The third scenario would be that of combining the votes of one party with the ones of LSI and PDIU. If the two main parties fail to get 71 votes and LSI and PDIU get enough mandates to create a government, then the government will be in their hands. The question in this case is this: To whom will Meta and Idrizi give their votes to make Prime Minister? Will their votes go to Rama, with whom Meta has been in a coalition government for four years, but now seems to have gone through a jittery break-up, or Basha, with whom he has had a distant relationship. Being the President, Meta can punish Rama, by giving his votes to Basha. He thinks that Rama is more powerful and more uncontrollable than Basha.
However, all of the above are just scenarios. One thing is certain, the post-election alliances created this time around, will be the most interesting – and the most unique alliances – that were ever created by Albanian election. And to conclude, this would be the first elections where everybody gets what they deserve!