The solution proposed by the French presidency of the Council of the European Union to remove the Bulgarian veto on North Macedonia’s EU integration process is not a good one but it should be accepted as there are no better alternatives on the table, according to Dimitar Bechev, researcher at Oxford University.
Bechev spoke to Ilva Tare in this week’s Balkan Debrief talk show.
Bulgaria has blocked its neighbor’s EU path since 2020 over claims that Macedonian identity and language are of Bulgarian origin, and that Bulgarians in North Macedonia must be recognized in the country’s constitution as state-founding ethnicity.
French President Emmanuel Macron proposed a solution to both countries which was approved by Bulgaria and is currently awaiting a vote in the Macedonian parliament.
Macron’s proposal demands commitment by Skopje to recognize the Bulgarian ethnic minority in the constitution and protect minority rights. According to Macron, it doesn’t question the official existence of Macedonian language.
The Macedonian government views the proposal positively, but finance backlash has come from the opposition, Macedonian Orthodox Church, Academy of Sciences and Arts, and diaspora. Opposition protests erupted last weekend in Skopje over the proposal, calling it “humiliating” and “dangerous to national interests”.
“It’s probably not a good proposal in and of itself, but it’s the best we have right now […] It’s just a pragmatic way to shut down the disputes for the time being and move forward with the negotiations. And I think that’s what is going to happen,” Bechev noted.
He added that one of the possible scenarios sees the current Macedonian government replaced by a so-called “technical government” with ministers from both political sides who oversee early elections. However, Bechev thinks that the government will survive and the proposal adopted in parliament.
Speaking of the veto precedent in EU enlargement over bilateral issues, Bechev said it creates real problems but it’s not going to go anywhere.
“There’s one misconception and that’s why the Macedonians lost time. They somehow believe that the big member states will lean on Bulgaria. Bulgaria will just take a step back, but that’s not happening and that’s not realistic. And that really cost Macedonians quite a bit in the process,” he argued.
Finally, answering the question whether a compromise is actually possible, Bechev suggested that it could take time:
“Yes and no. I think that there’ll be the votes to adopt the French proposal, amidst lots of opposition, demonstrations, and so on and so forth.
But implementation will be difficult because North Macedonia, as well as Albania will start negotiations after the adoption of the proposal. But then the real negotiations won’t start until the Constitution is amended to include Bulgarians as one of the communities. And there, I expect lots of back and forth.”
Ilva Tare, is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington. She is now hosting Balkans Debrief, a new talk show presented by the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center.
Balkans Debrief features in-depth analysis and exclusive insights with policymakers and key players on subjects impacting more than 18 million people.
