Urban, Young Population and Babyboomers Decisive Groups in Elections – Exit Explains

Population data from INSTAT show that the electorate of 2017 is significantly younger and more urbanized than the electorate of 2013. Similarly, there has been a spike in the population in the babyboomer age group 55–69, perhaps caused by returning emigrants retiring in their motherland.

Real population growth 2013–2017. Data: INSTAT
Real population growth per age group 2013–2017. Data: INSTAT

Overall, there are 38,200 potential new voters from the 25–34 age bracket for the political parties to convince, as well 71,027 votes from people between 55 and 69. Parties have responded differently to the challenge to represent this changing population in their candidate lists.

Age distribution on party candidate lists. Data: KQZ.
Age distribution on party candidate lists. Data: KQZ.

Both large parties, the PD and especially the PS, have a large contingent of established party members in the age group 41–50, with relatively few young candidates. LSI and LIBRA are aiming at a younger contingent of the population, which is mirrored in their candidate lists. Especially LSI has set up a campaign with a strong emphasis on young volunteers.

The PR is here a bit of an anomaly, with a candidate list consisting for nearly 75% of candidates under 30. Party leader Fatmir Mediu himself is on the list of the PD, and it is not expected that the party itself will acquire any seats on its own. The current PR mandate in Parliament was won in 2013 by PAA leader Agron Duka, now also part of the PD list.

The second development in the electorate is the continuing urbanization of the Albanian population.

Real population growth 2013–2017 per region. Data: INSTAT.
Real population growth per region 2013–2017. Data: INSTAT.

Data from INSTAT show clearly in population increase in Tirana nearly 65,000 between 2013 and 2017, as well as increases in other urban areas such as Durrës and Vlora. In nearly all other regions population is decline. This new demographic distribution has already been reflected in the distribution of 140 mandates over the different regions, with Tirana now providing a total of 34 deputies. This makes the performance of the different political parties in the capital by far the most important indicator for the rest of the country.