North Macedonia and Bulgaria signed on Sunday the bilateral protocol, a vital piece of the EU negotiating framework paving the way for the first intergovernmental conference to take place early this week, but despite this historic step, the road ahead is likely to be far from smooth.
Following a week of protests that saw violence erupt, ethnic conflicts simmer, and accusations of foreign interference to destabilise the region simmer, 68 MP out of 120 voted in favour of the French proposal in Macedonian parliament on Saturday with zero abstentions or votes against. The opposition, however, staunch opponents of the proposal, boycotted parliament.
This was followed by the signing of the protocol by the countries’ respective foreign ministers. Delegations from both Skopje and Tirana will travel to Brussels on Monday for their first Intergovernmental Conference, marking the official opening of the clusters of chapters that have to be addressed before they can formally join the EU.
“Bulgaria strongly supports the European integration of the Republic of North Macedonia and Albania. We wish them success on the path they have wanted to take for a long time,” Genchovska said on Sunday after signing the protocol with Bujar Osmani in Sofia after the second meeting of the Joint Intergovernmental Commission of Bulgaria and North Macedonia.
The protocol contents were not made public but are expected to be published in the coming days. The document, consisting of about 10 pages, contains specific measures and deadlines in relations between Sofia and Skopje, mostly to clear historical disputes. Their implementation will depend on how quickly Skopje will advance toward the EU and the process will be monitored by the European Commission.
However, Bulgaria is not backing down on its position on the official language of North Macedonia, Genchovska said:
“We fully comply with the decision of the National Assembly. As you know, in its bilateral relations with the Republic of North Macedonia, Bulgaria does not recognise their official language. However, this is a little more specific in the context of the other 26 EU member states, as they have their position and in no way can we oblige them to accept our official position,” Genchovska said.
Bulgaria will issue a unilateral declaration that it does not recognise the Macedonian language, while the Committee is expected to come out with a corresponding declaration recognising the Bulgarian right to dissent.
Despite the positivity coming from Brussels and the region over the latest news, it could be a decade or longer before either country makes it to the union. There are a number of issues that need to be ironed out and a raft of reforms to bring both countries in line with EU standards on the rule of law, media freedom, and in areas such as the environment, energy, and farming.
For example, one of the provisions within the French proposal is that Bulgarians should be included as a minority within the Macedonian Constitution. While passing the proposal required a simple majority, to change the constitution, a two-thirds majority is required, and this is not currently possible.
Opposition group VMRO-DPNE led by Hristijan Mickoski, not only boycotted the vote but held a press conference with 44 MPs shortly after to announce they would never accept to change the constitution.
“There is not a millimetre of deviation from this. There is no step back because everything we have is behind us, our dignity, honour, and our Macedonia,” said Mickoski, also calling for fresh elections and the continuation of protests which he called “the people’s will”.
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, a staunch supporter of the French proposal, spoke of his happiness that “Albania’s absurd hostage is over”. The fate of Albania has been tied to North Macedonia throughout the accession process, leading to frustrations from Tirana over the hold-up.
“It took a full three strenuous years since the European Council decision to open the way for negotiations so that the range of artificial obstacles raised before Albania could be completely flattened…These extraordinary challenges have tested not just the government, but our character as a country, as a community of people and as a governing majority of course, “ he wrote.
Along with Rama, Ethnic Albanians in North Macedonia have also been overall, staunchly pro the proposal.
Xhelal Neziri, journalist and analyst said, “Albania has been a victim in this blockade, which neither created the problem nor could do anything to solve it,” he said, adding that decoupling the two countries like Rama asked is not a good idea.
“Its separation has been seen as a dangerous step, since in that case it would create frustrations among the ethnic Albanians of North Macedonia, who make up about a third of the total population.”
He explained that these matters pose a risk to internal security in North Macedonia, while memories of 2021’s dangerous inter-ethnic conflict. Fighting broke out between ethnic Albanians and Macedonian security forces and while peace has continued, tensions over rights and representation remain.
On the topic of Rama’s support, Neziri said it gave the impression to some Macedonians that it was anti-Macedonian.
“This narrative was constructed precisely by the political forces that wanted to undermine the approval of this Proposal. Rama was also aware of this, but it seems that he didn’t even think about the effect it creates in the neighbouring country: he was looking for a well-deserved reward from the EU,” he concluded.
But the fact remains, the proposal was only approved by a simple majority without the presence of the opposition, and as harder tasks lie ahead, this will pose problematic.
Meto Koloski of the United Macedonian Diaspora said that after 17 long years of waiting, their EU progress now depends on “Bulgaria’s version of history which includes Holocaust denial and revisionism which will undermine stability in the EU.”
“Bulgaria is undergoing considerable instability in its government, and the conditions imposed by Bulgaria are reflective of internal Bulgarian politics — which should have no bearing on EU accession for Macedonia,” he added.
Indeed, it has been a tumultuous time for Bulgaria. Spats over the veto resulted in a vote of no confidence that toppled the government and will see citizens head to the polls for the fourth time in less than 18 months in the autumn. While the veto was lifted, taking into account the French proposal, it remains unpopular with citizens who largely do not favour any concessions to Skopje.
Furthermore, North Macedonia being unable to meet the requirement to include ethnic Bulgarians in the constitution is likely to open another can of worms in the coming months or years.
But for now, this good news is the beacon of hope both countries sorely needed after the disaster of the recent EU-Western Balkan summit where Rama and his Macedonian counterpart took to the stage with ashen faces and harsh words. The leaders made headlines after launching criticism at a lack of EU unity and the bloc and them as NATO members being “held hostage” by one single state, Bulgaria.
Delegations from both countries will head to Brussels on Monday to take the first steps towards membership. Although hopes are not high over any quick success as neighbouring Montenegro is set to join in 80 years if it continues at the current pace. Furthermore, simmering concerns from certain EU partners over whether enlargement should continue at all in practical terms remain.
As Rama said, “Let’s not forget, this is not the end of our road, but just the beginning of a new part of the road.”
