As there is no strong tradition of pre-electoral polling in Albania, there is no reliable way to predict the outcome of the upcoming elections.
However, we can sketch out at least a baseline scenario in which all parties receive the same number of votes as during the parliamentary elections of 2013. This method is of course far from ideal. In 2013, there were 66 parties participating in the elections, mainly divided in two large coalitions. This time, there are only 18 parties taking part, without coalitions and with two new parties, LIBRA and SFIDA.
Following to the 2013 voting numbers in the 12 electoral zones, but taking into account the absence of coalitions, we would arrive at the following distribution of seats: PS 71; PD: 51; LSI: 15; PR: 1; and PDIU: 1. In a previous article, we already explained the D’Hondt method, which is used to distribute remaining votes for parties that don’t meet the electoral threshold of 3%.
As may be clear from these numbers, the sole fact that there are no pre-electoral coalitions profits the Socialist Party, which gets 7 seats extra on the table even without having to perform better than in 2013.
Considering that the PS and LSI have actually had a long period to prepare for the elections, while the PD decided to join at the last moment and with candidate lists about which there is already considerable commotion within the party, it is not unlikely that both parties would improve their 2013 results, at the cost of the PD.
This hypothetical scenario gives us the following distribution of seats in parliament, based on the 2013 performances of all parties. This also appears to be the maximum result that the PD can hope for:
Shkodra
- PD: Romeo Gurakuqi, Izmira Ulqinaku, Lorenc Luka, Bardh Spahia, Nard Ndoka (PDK), Gjok Uldedaj
- PS: Ditmir Bushati, Paulin Sterkaj, Senida Mesi, Luan Harusha
- LSI: Agron Çela
Kukës
- PD: Flamur Noka, Isuf Cela
- PS: Mimi Kodheli
Dibra
- PD: Dhurata Cupi, Xhemal Gjunkshi, Edmond Isaku
- PS: Ilir Beqaj, Almira Xhembulla
- LSI: Përparim Spahiu
Lezha
- PD: Aldo Bumçi, Lindita Metaliaj, Andon Frrokaj
- PS: Lindita Nikolla, Pjerin Ndreu, Gjetan Gjetani
- LSI: Viktor Tushaj
Tirana
- PD: Lulzim Basha, Orjola Pampuri, Rudina Hajdari, Grida Shqima, Albana Vokshi, Jorida Tabaku, Sali Berisha, Halim Kosova, Gent Strazimiri, Fatmir Mediu (PR), Dashamir Shehi (LZhK), Gerti Bogdani, Fuad Haxhiymeri (PAA)
- PS: Elona Gjebrea, Besnik Baraj, Olta Xhaçka, Blerina Gjylameti, Pandeli Majko, Saimir Tahiri, Vasilika Hysi, Ervin Bushati, Ogerta Manastirliu, Fatmir Xhafaj, Rakip Suli, Arben Ahmetaj, Xhemal Qefalia, Sadri Abazi, Ulsi Manja, Klotilda Bushka, Sadi Vorpsi, Arben Pellumbi (nr. 19 is Spartak Braho, who most certainly will win a seat at the cost of another party)
- LSI: Klajda Gjosha, Kejdi Mehmetaj, Floida Kërpaçi (nr. 5 is Luan Rama, suggesting that the LSI is sure to win at least two additional seats in Tirana)
Durrës
- PD: Oerd Bylykbashi, Fatbardha Kadiu, Edi Paloka, Florjon Mima, Agron Duka (PAA), Vullnet Topalli
- PS: Eglantina Gjermeni, Milva Ekonomi, Fidel Ylli, Ilir Ndraxhi, Rolant Xhelilaj, Jurgis Çyrbja
- LSI: Lefter Koka
- PR: Lindita Vrapi (this seat was won in 2013 by Agron Duka, who is now on the PD list; the chance is low that Vrapi will win this seat)
Elbasan
- PD: Edmond Spaho, Endri Hasa, Luciano Boci, Taulant Zeneli
- PS: Taulant Balla, Evis Kushi, Arben Kamami, Musa Ulqini
- LSI: Monika Kryemadhi
- PDIU: Aqif Rakipi
Fier
- PD: Enkelejd Alibeaj, Genc Pollo, Myslym Murrizi, Luan Baci, Olsi Cukaj (PAA)
- PS: Erion Braçe, Adelina Rista, Bashkim Fino, Ismet Beqiraj, Antoneta Dhima, Bujar Çela, Tatiana Piro, Anduel Xhindi, Gramoz Ruçi
- LSI: Petrit Vasili, Robert Bitri
Berat
- PD: Eduard Halimi
- PS: Blendi Klosi, Ermonela Valikaj, Adnor Shameti, Fadil Nasufi
- LSI: Nasip Naço, Gledjon Rehovica
Korça
- PD: Valentina Duka, Ervin Salianji, Hekuran Hoxhalli, Klevis Balliu
- PS: Niko Peleshi, Eduard Shalsi, Elisa Spiropali, Ilirian Pendavinji, Ilir Xhakolli, Edlira Bode
- LSI: Edmond Panariti
Vlora
- PD: Agron Shehaj, Nadire Mecorapaj, Vangjel Dule (PBDNj)
- PS: Damian Gjiknuri, Vilma Bello, Alket Hyseni, Vullnet Sinaj, Andrea Marto, Edi Rama, Edmond Leka, Fatmir Velaj
- LSI: Sezai Rokaj
Gjirokastra
- PD: Tritan Shehu
- PS: Bledar Çuçi, Mirela Kumbaro, Flamur Golemi
- LSI: Vangjel Tavo
