In recent days, Prime Minister Edi Rama has often stated his desire to reach 71 mandates in Parliament, in order to form a government on his own. The question is how likely it is that he will arrive at this magical number.
Below we have included a chart plotting the number of mandates of the major parties in Parliament since the general elections of 2001, when the number of mandates was set at 140.
The only time that the Socialist Party (PS), or any party in the last 16 years, achieved a majority of more than 71 seats was during the elections of 2001, when with 41.44% of the popular vote, the PS won 73 mandates.
A major break can be seen between the elections of 2005 and 2009, owing to the Constitutional Reform from 2008, in which the current coalition system was introduced and smaller parties were put at a severe disadvantage.
In 2009, the PD fell short of 71 mandates, winning 40.18% of the popular vote and 68 seats in Parliament, and formed a coalition with the LSI.
The same happened in 2013, when the PS gained 66 mandates with 41.36% of the vote. Like the PD in 2009, they formed a coalition with the LSI to achieve a majority in Parliament.
The major difference with the elections from 2013 is the absence of pre-electoral coalitions, a condition that was part of the McAllister+ agreement. As Exit showed before, the absence of pre-electoral coalition works in favor of the large parties, meaning that PS’s 41.36% score from 2013 would nowadays translate into 72 mandates.
The latest (and only) poll of IPR/Ora News puts PS at 43±2.5%, which theoretically offers the possibility of achieving a 71-mandate majority in Parliament.
